Traditionally, polling on Congressional preference always had a +5% bias in favor of the Democrats as compared to actual Election Day results. Of course in the summer every poll should be taken with a grain of salt and as a snapshot.
Republicans lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the second week in a row, this time for the week ending Sunday, July 15.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.
The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 9-15, 2012
These results are interesting though. For a reference point, the Congressional Preference polling right before Election Day 2010 was more or less tied when the GOP won 60+ seats and retook the majority that year.
I still contend most non-political people who will be voting aren’t paying attention until after Labor Day. But with social media permeating more and more, perhaps the attention span is getting longer?
-Bruce